The seat is held with a margin of 14.9 per cent but party movers and shakers are convincing themselves it will take a miracle to save the seat. The unlikely shape of this miracle was to have been Morris Iemma. The former NSW premier was understood to be backed by heavyweights keen to ensure NSW was not blamed for the expected election defeat in September, although he has reportedly withdrawn his candidacy.
The expected losses in NSW are interesting not only for their likely severity but for the ideological distribution. If polls don't improve many of NSW Labor's best younger MPs will lose their seats, including Michelle Rowland, Jason Clare, Chris Bowen, David Bradbury and possibly Tony Burke, all in the Right. The safer seats will be held by Tanya Plibersek, Anthony Albanese and Stephen Jones. The Liberals will win the country but the socialists will win control of Labor in NSW.
This opens up scenarios that keep moderate Labor members awake at night. With the Left faction dominant, federal intervention may be called. The right-wing party secretary could be replaced with an administrator chosen by a left-dominated national executive. At that point the only people able to save the Right would be trade union secretaries who wield power through the conference. These people are mostly even more socialist than the Left MPs, opposing market-based reforms in favour of growing the public sector where their membership is strongest.
The NSW Right is lately much maligned but it was once the force that preserved the ALP from communism and the weight behind reformist governments from Whitlam and Wran to Hawke and Keating. The Right promoted opportunity, economic growth and family values while the Left promoted the arts, environmental protection and social equity. Both wings together made a modern social democratic party but the left wing by itself is barely distinguishable from the Greens.
All this will influence the choice of candidate in Barton. The fear-driven choice would have been the resurrection of celebrity candidate Iemma, whose popularity might have boosted the by-election result and forestalled a day of reckoning for the Right and its party secretary, Sam Dastyari.
The reported candidacy of Shaoquett Moselmane has raised questions as to whether the Tripodi-Obeid Terrigal faction that shepherded him into the upper house is reasserting some authority, lost because of the Independent Commission Against Corruption scandals. The more popular theory is that he wants to secure a second term in the NSW Legislative Council in exchange for not running.
Iemma's former media adviser Kirsten Andrews and maverick Rockdale mayor Shane O'Brien also have nominated.
The brave choice would be a fresh start. What the party needs in the medium term is a candidate with the self-reliance to survive six years in opposition doing their own policy and campaigning. What the Right needs is a powerful representative of the centrist view of Labor's purpose. If the faction puts in a short-term fix to save face in September, the longer-term consequence will be the accelerated destruction of the Right.
Australia has been well served by a politics defined by a struggle between the Centre Left and the Centre Right. The extinguishment of Labor's Right will shift one of the two great powers in politics substantially outside the mainstream, putting at risk our consensus on growth and opportunity. Barton may seem a long way away from these grand concerns but it is about to become a crucible for the forces battling for Labor's future.